Framework for Modeling and Optimization of On-Orbit Servicing Operations Under Demand Uncertainties
Abstract
This paper develops a framework that models and optimizes the operations of complex on-orbit servicing infrastructures involving one or more servicers and orbital depots to provide multiple types of services to a fleet of geostationary satellites. The proposed method extends the state-of-the-art space logistics technique by addressing the unique challenges in on-orbit servicing applications and integrates it with the Rolling Horizon decision-making approach. The space logistics technique enables modeling of the on-orbit servicing logistical operations as a Mixed-Integer Linear Program whose optimal solutions can efficiently be found. The Rolling Horizon approach enables the assessment of the long-term value of an on-orbit servicing infrastructure by accounting for the uncertain service needs that arise over time among the geostationary satellites. Two case studies successfully demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework for 1) short-term operational scheduling and 2) long-term strategic decision making for on-orbit servicing architectures under diverse market conditions.
References
[1] , “Investment Perspectives: On-Orbit Satellite Servicing Markets Continue to Evolve,” ISS National Lab., https://www.issnationallab.org/blog/investment-perspectives-on-orbit-satellite-servicing-markets-continue-to-evolve/ [retrieved 24 Feb. 2020].
[2] , “Rethinking Satellite Servicing,” The Space Review, https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3653/1 [retrieved 24 Feb. 2020].
[3] , “Robotic Servicing of Geosynchronous Satellites (RSGS),” Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, https://www.darpa.mil/program/robotic-servicing-of-geosynchronous-satellites [retrieved 24 Feb. 2020].
[4] , “Northrop Grumman’s Satellite Servicer MEV-1,” Eutelsat Satellite, Launch on ILS Proton, SpaceNews, https://spacenews.com/northrop-grummans-satellite-servicer-mev-1-eutelsat-satellite-launch-on-ils-proton/ [retrieved 24 Feb. 2020].
[5] , “On-Orbit Servicing System Assessment and Optimization Methods Based on Lifecycle Simulation Under Mixed Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 87, June–July 2013, pp. 8–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2013.01.012
[6] , “Optimal Servicing of Geostationary Satellites Considering Earth’s Triaxiality and Lunisolar Effects,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, Vol. 39, No. 10, Oct. 2016, pp. 2219–2231. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.G001424
[7] , “Geosynchronous Earth Orbit Robotic Servicer Mission Design,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 55, No. 6, Nov. 2018, pp. 1444–1452. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A33945
[8] , “Quantification of the Responsiveness of On-Orbit Servicing Infrastructure for Modularized Earth Orbiting Platforms,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 132, March 2017, pp. 192–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.12.021
[9] , “Semi-Analytical Model for Design and Analysis of On-Orbit Servicing Architecture,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 57, No. 6, Nov. 2020, pp. 1129–1138. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34663
[10] , “Impact Evaluation of In-Space Additive Manufacturing and Recycling Technologies for On-Orbit Servicing,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 56, No. 6, 2018, pp. 1498–1508. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34135
[11] , “Versatile On-Orbit Servicing Mission Design in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 57, No. 4, 2020, pp. 844–850. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34701
[12] , “On-Orbit Servicing of Geosynchronous Satellites Based on Low-Thrust Transfers Considering Perturbations,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 159, June 2019, pp. 658–675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2019.01.041
[13] , “Modeling and Simulation of Permanent On-Orbit Servicing Infrastructures Dedicated to Modularized Earth-Orbiting Platforms,” Master’s Thesis, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, 2017.
[14] , “Establishing a Framework to Explore the Servicer-Client Relationship in On-Orbit Servicing,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 153, Dec. 2018, pp. 109–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.10.040
[15] , “Economic Case for the Retirement of Geosynchronous Communication Satellites via Space Tugs,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 58, No. 9, 2006, pp. 458–498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2005.12.014
[16] , “A Mathematical Model for Interplanetary Logistics,” Logistics Spectrum, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2007, pp. 23–33.
[17] , “Space Logistics Modeling and Simulation Analysis Using SpaceNet: Four Application Case,” AIAA SPACE 2011 Conference & Exposition, AIAA Paper 2011-7346, Sept. 2011. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34168
[18] , “Modeling Space System Architectures with Graph Theory,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 51, No. 5, 2014, pp. 1413–1429. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A32578
[19] , “Generalized Multicommodity Network Flow Model for the Earth-Moon–Mars Logistics System,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 53, No. 1, 2016, pp. 25–38. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A33235
[20] , “Dynamic Modeling and Optimization for Space Logistics Using Time-Expanded Networks,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 105, No. 2, 2014, pp. 428–443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2014.10.026
[21] , “Campaign-Level Dynamic Network Modelling for Spaceflight Logistics for the Flexible Path Concept,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 123, June–July 2016, pp. 51–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.03.006
[22] , “Integrated Space Logistics Mission Planning and Spacecraft Design with Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 55, No. 2, 2018, pp. 365–381. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A33905
[23] , “Space Transportation System and Mission Planning for Regular Interplanetary Missions,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 56, No. 1, 2019, pp. 12–20. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34168
[24] , “Integrated In-Situ Resource Utilization System Design and Logistics for Mars Exploration,” Acta Astronautica, Vol. 170, May 2020, pp. 80–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.01.031
[25] , “A Theory of Rolling Horizon Decision making,” Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 29, Dec. 1991, pp. 387–415.
[26] , “A Rolling Horizon Optimization Framework for the Simultaneous Energy Supply and Demand Planning in Microgrids,” Applied Energy, Vol. 155, Oct. 2015, pp. 485–501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.05.090
[27] , “A Dynamic Scheduling Method of Earth-Observing Satellites by Employing Rolling Horizon Strategy,” Scientific World Journal, Vol. 2013, April 2013. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/304047
[28] “Union of Concerned Scientists,” UCS Satellite Database, www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database [retrieved 17 July 2020].
[29] , “January 2018 Satellite & Space Monthly Review,” Quilty Analytics, Feb. 2018, https://www.quiltyanalytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018_01-Satellite-Monthly-1.pdf.
[30] “Premiere for Europe: Jules Verne Refuels the ISS,” The European Space Agency, http://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/ATV/Premiere_for_Europe_Jules_Verne_refuels_the_ISS [retrieved 28 Sept. 2020].
[31] , “Satellite Servicing Opportunities in Geosynchronous Orbit,” AIAA SPACE 2012 Conference and Exposition, AIAA Paper 2012-5261, 2012. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2012-5261
