Orbital Debris Encounter Estimation for International Space Station Orbit Companion Satellites

Orbital debris proliferation requires mitigation missions to understand the detailed orbits most at risk, and which portions of those orbits have the highest risk. This work analyzes a field of currently tracked debris elements and provides conjunction analysis for target satellite systems by direct numerical simulation of the restricted two-body problem. This analysis was accomplished by developing a low earth orbit simulation in MATLAB and populating the debris field with over 3800 publicly tracked debris items from their two-line elements (TLE). Restricted two-body problems were solved to calculate each element’s position and velocity relative to the International Space Station over three orbital periods. Within the ISS orbit, 12 tracer satellites were simulated at a 30-degree mean anomaly interval. Debris risks were estimated by range to the ISS. The results indicate debris encounters increase for mean anomaly start positions within 150 to 180 degrees with orbital velocities ranging between 6.1 to 15.1 kilometers per second at distances within 100 km.